I touched briefly on my Oscar predictions in January, but the race has changed a lot since then, so I’ve updated and overhauled my picks. Here is where I stand on the 6 major categories.
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln, Les Misérables
Should win: I think The Master should win pretty much all of these categories, but I’ll stick to the field; probably Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo has a great deal of momentum in its favor. After the outrage that Ben Affleck was snubbed for a Best Director nomination, he has seemingly been recognized for his efforts with a win in every other award show. For a movie that the Academy seems to like, expect him to be thrown a bone here.
Will win: Ang Lee
Could win: Steven Spielberg
Should win: Ang Lee
The winner of the Director’s Guild award almost always wins the Oscar for this category, but since Affleck wasn’t nominated, this is a bit difficult to predict. I don’t see any of the other three nominees winning, with Zeitlin being a very long shot, but Lincoln seems to be losing a bit of fanfare this past month.
Will win: Daniel Day Lewis
Could win: Bradley Cooper
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix
Lincoln isn’t losing enough momentum to keep Daniel Day Lewis from a record third Best Actor victory. He’s been sweeping the other awards shows, and is certainly deserving of a statue here.
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should win: Quvenzhané Wallis
Lawrence has been the favorite for a while, but Amour seems to be picking up some good vibrations of late. So on Sunday, which will be Riva’s 86th birthday, I’m expecting her to get the nod over the field.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christoph Waltz
Could win: Anyone
Should win: Alan Arkin
Eh. I don’t really care. This is probably the hardest major category to predict in recent memory. I don’t think anyone can say with any confidence that this award is going one way or another. So I’ll take Waltz. He was great. De Niro is a boring pick, but probably the most likely.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Could win: Nobody else
Should win: Amy Adams
Speaking of boring picks. But this one has been all but locked up since, I don’t know, May? Hathaway has won this award every step of the way, and there’s no reason to expect another nominee to emerge victorious.